“Superhuman effort isn’t worth a damn unless it achieves results.”Ernest Shackleton
Baking is a very precise skill. If your math is off, it will likely be noticeable. The classic expression is “cooking is an art, baking is a science”. Honestly, you could argue that both cooking and baking are in some ways an art AND in other ways a science. But I’m not here to mince words. (…pun intentional.)
Decision making is also as much as an art as it is a science. I’d like to say that it’s as simple as actions equal results — if I do x, then y will happen — but life is rarely that binary.
Action is extremely important. Small decisions add up to uncomfortable truths or successful outcomes depending on the decisions we are making (or trending towards) over time. One tragic example is getting in with the wrong crowd and getting busted (often in life-changing ways) even though you technically didn’t do anything wrong. Guilty by association.
But there’s also a lot of other factors at play.
I could be the best painter in the world, but that doesn’t mean my work will sell. Painting is one skill; Selling is another. (Again both have an art and science to them.) There are hundreds of examples of creatives in history who only became renowned after they were long dead and buried. And there are likely a million other examples of unknown creatives who never sold anything and never become known for their work.
Great results are more about probability. The more you do x, the more likely y will occur, but you should never assume y is inevitable.
Q: What can you do to make the outcome you want more likely?
The key is stacking the deck as much as you can in your favor. In Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke, American Professional Poker player breaks down decision making as the result of a great process, and “improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them.”
Does that stop luck, (mis)fortune and other people’s decisions from sweeping in and creating a negative outcome? No. Ultimately these things are not in our control. However, by “making better decisions starts with understanding this: uncertainty can work a lot of mischief.” If we expect the unexpected from the get-go, we will be more likely to think quickly on our feels and improv our way through unexpected events.
STAY BOLD, Keep Pursuing,
— Josh Waggoner | Daily Blog #865